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It won't take that long, especially once an enterprising hacker decides that he really does want to be able to watch the content he paid for on whatever he damn well pleases. Probably with some snooping, and some looking between things that are and aren't compliant, they'll find the handshake and then incorporate it into a driver or program or codec somewhere.

Anyone have any bets on how long it will be before HDCP gets cracked?

By the time you finished your post.

Re: Anyone have any bets on how long it will be before HDCP gets cracked?

Yep, it's already cracked, see http://www.engadget.com/2005/07/21/the-clicker-hdcps-shiny-red-button/

Also, the fundamental math of the system is such that once 40 keys have been discovered/brute forced it is possible to derive all possible keys. But really, I'm just waiting for the day that something big has it's key revoked. Can you imagine what happens when a whole line of new 52 inch tv's stop working?

Re: Anyone have any bets on how long it will be before HDCP gets cracked?

Wow. I was going to say "When will they learn?", but I suppose it's not surprising. The people that are driving the demand for these system are business people who don't know (or don't want to believe) that it's futile, and DRM people who can easily make a buck from that cluelessness.

It'll be a crapstorm when something big like that gets its keys revoked. Someone who pays a few thousand dollars for a TV is not going to be pleased when they get screwed and they're not going to just let it drop when the company says "but it's the pirates' fault!"

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